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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack

418 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score50.2%Range (90% confident): 46.1% – 54.2%Based on 418 games
0%50.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.1% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
47.1%6.1%46.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
12.g4
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack
Analyzen=418
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.1%

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack has a 50.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.1% and 54.2%), based on 418 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -5.5% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 44%

1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1400-1599: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1600-1799: 37.1% win rate (16 games)
  • 1800-1999: 37.6% win rate (69 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.5% win rate (135 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.1% win rate (177 games)
  • 2500+: 44.2% win rate (20 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (48%), worst in Rapid (42%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.4% win rate (131 games)
  • Blitz: 48.4% win rate (231 games)
  • Rapid: 42.3% win rate (54 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (2 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599————
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (45 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (90 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (82 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (80 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack has a 47.1% (90% CI: 43.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 418 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.1% win rate for white (177 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.4%) outperforms Rapid (42.3%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack has a 49.5% (90% CI: 42.4%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 135 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack has a 50.1% (90% CI: 44.0%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 177 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack has a 46.4% (90% CI: 39.3%-53.5%) win rate for white (131 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack has a 48.4% (90% CI: 43.0%-53.8%) win rate for white (231 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack is slightly favors black with a 47.1% (90% CI: 43.1%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.