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Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation

468K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.0%Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 49.1%Based on 468K games
0%49.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 49.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.2%3.6%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.d5
Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation
Analyzen=468K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 49.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 49.1%), based on 468K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.6% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.9% win rate (52,792 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (76,712 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.3% win rate (97,248 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.6% win rate (94,719 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (75,542 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (45,808 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.3% win rate (16,708 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.6% win rate (6,586 games)
  • 2500+: 48.8% win rate (1,566 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.4% win rate (13,356 games)
  • Bullet: 49.1% win rate (98,190 games)
  • Blitz: 47.5% win rate (228,999 games)
  • Rapid: 45.0% win rate (121,802 games)
  • Classical: 39.8% win rate (5,334 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (10,040 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (31,107 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11,535 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.6% expected score (83 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (11,554 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (42,123 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (22,642 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (310 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (345 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (15,856 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (48,442 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (31,042 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (1,563 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (3,292 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (16,598 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (46,134 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (26,858 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (1,837 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (2,405 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (14,984 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (37,196 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (19,721 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (1,236 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (3,634 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (13,749 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (19,180 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (8,946 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (299 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.3% expected score (2,557 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (8,936 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (4,216 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (981 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (936 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (5,007 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (570 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (73 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (1,466 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Indian Defense
49.6%
Variations (5)
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Adorjan Gambit
47.8%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Advance Variation
46.1%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Alekhine Variation
48.6%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Alekhine Variation, Leko Gambit
48.0%
Indian Defense: Anti-Grünfeld, Basman-Williams Attack
48.4%
Analyze Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate?

The Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 468K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation perform best?

The Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (6.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.1%) outperforms Classical (39.8%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation?

The Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 53K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 77K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 95K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.1%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.3%) win rate for white (98K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.7%) win rate for white (229K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.3%) win rate for white (122K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation has a 39.8% (90% CI: 38.7%-40.9%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation a good opening?

The Indian Defense: Pawn Push Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.