Horwitz Defense
2 variations · 28M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
47.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 28M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #48 of 62
- Games in this context
- 28M
- Best context
- 57.7% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 40.7% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Variations measured
- 2
- Average game length
- 35 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.3% at 0-999, 39.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (3,402 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (296,321 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (662,941 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (308,643 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (3,457 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (9,625 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (637,156 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,028,511 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (355,964 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (9,670 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (27,650 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,191,548 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,749,039 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (488,820 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (20,622 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (63,890 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,793,643 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (2,477,129 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (663,528 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (32,681 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (88,082 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (2,338,995 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (2,716,517 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (682,426 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (26,935 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (61,202 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (2,531,973 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (2,201,918 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (467,907 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (14,379 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.9% expected score (24,582 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,065,924 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,039,247 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (135,324 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (2,448 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (8,589 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,295,925 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (284,014 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (20,415 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (255 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 36.9% expected score (353 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (235,748 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (15,819 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (318 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
2 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Horwitz Defense family scores 47.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.0% and 47.1% — from 28M Lichess games across 2 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 28M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Horwitz Defense win rate?
Across the Horwitz Defense's 2 variations, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 28M rated games from Lichess.
How many Horwitz Defense variations are there?
2 Horwitz Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Horwitz Defense perform best?
The Horwitz Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (1.3M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Horwitz Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Horwitz Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.1% in Blitz (12M games) against 46.8% in Rapid (3.1M games).
How sharp is the Horwitz Defense?
Horwitz Defense games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Horwitz Defense a good opening family?
The Horwitz Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 45.2% and loses 51.2%. Results differ between its 2 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.