16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 50.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.3% and 51.6%), based on 16K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 14% → 51%
Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (41%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (4.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (47.9%) outperforms Classical (41.2%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a sharpness score of 92.4 (decisive), meaning 92.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 44.4% (90% CI: 40.8%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 527 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 41.2% (90% CI: 39.3%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 14.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.4%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.7%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.
In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line has a 42.0% (90% CI: 40.2%-43.8%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.
The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.