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Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation

5.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.3%Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 55.4%Based on 5.1K games
0%54.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 55.4%
Outcome Distribution
50.6%7.3%42.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Rc1
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation
Analyzen=5.1K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.3%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 54.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.1% and 55.4%), based on 5.1K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 50%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 40.4% win rate (27 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.2% win rate (61 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.3% win rate (232 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.3% win rate (705 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.2% win rate (1,291 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.1% win rate (2,008 games)
  • 2500+: 50.2% win rate (764 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 51.3% win rate (1,194 games)
  • Blitz: 50.6% win rate (3,508 games)
  • Rapid: 48.5% win rate (375 games)
  • Classical: 48.1% win rate (12 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (165 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (157 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (473 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (895 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (233 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,651 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (119 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (467 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (281 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.6%) outperforms Rapid (48.5%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 92.7 (decisive), meaning 92.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 39.0%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 232 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 705 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.3%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 764 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-53.7%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.0%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-52.7%) win rate for white (375 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Capablanca Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.