English Opening: Neo-Catalan
112K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.
Measured over 112K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 112K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 112K
- Best context
- 47.6% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 41.6% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.5%
- Draws
- 6.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.7% at 0-999, 43.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (122 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (251 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (64 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (308 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (757 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (214 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (836 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,535 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (437 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,456 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (2,964 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (910 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.6% expected score (51 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (42 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (2,796 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (5,859 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (1,576 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (160 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.7% expected score (36 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (4,680 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11,316 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (2,683 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (261 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.5% expected score (70 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (7,552 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (17,926 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (2,870 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (182 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (12,055 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (19,508 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (2,179 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (41 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (6,145 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (3,909 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (287 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan scores 45.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.3% and 45.8% — from 112K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 112K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate?
Playing the English Opening: Neo-Catalan, Black wins 42.2%, draws 6.5% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 112K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the English Opening: Neo-Catalan perform best?
The English Opening: Neo-Catalan performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 46.5% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.7% in Blitz (64K games) against 45.3% in Rapid (11K games).
How sharp is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan?
The English Opening: Neo-Catalan has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 45.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 441 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.7%, draws 6.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.7%, draws 7.8% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.2%, draws 10.3% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 37.1%, draws 1.7% and loses 61.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.0%. It rests on 210 Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.1%, draws 7.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 64K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.3%, draws 8.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.4%, draws 11.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 725 Lichess games.
Is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan a good opening?
The English Opening: Neo-Catalan is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.2% of its games and loses 51.2%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.