English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense
24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.
Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 24K
- Best context
- 47.1% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.9% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 42.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (43 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (77 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (103 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (169 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (43 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (316 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (301 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (95 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.8% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (738 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (746 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (165 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 25.5% expected score (25 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,402 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (2,310 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (319 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (1,992 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (3,707 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (552 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (43 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (3,158 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (4,141 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (466 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (1,179 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (1,251 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (29 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense scores 45.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.7% and 45.8% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate?
Playing the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense perform best?
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 45.7% (6.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.7% in Blitz (13K games) against 45.9% in Rapid (1.7K games).
How sharp is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense?
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.7%, draws 0.4% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 130 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 325 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 727 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.8%, draws 5.8% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.7%, draws 6.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.5%, draws 8.9% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.2%, draws 6.9% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.1%, draws 7.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.7%, draws 8.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 120 Lichess games.
Is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense a good opening?
The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Bogoljubow Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.3% of its games and loses 51.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.