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English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined

28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.9%

40%55%
Floor47.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.4%.

Measured over 28K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
28K
Best context
50.5% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context
45.4% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
40 moves
Games that end decisively
93.7%
Draws
6.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.9% at 0-999, 48.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 27.7% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (99 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (106 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (297 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (253 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (712 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (611 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,667 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,642 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (296 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (3,062 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (3,470 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (384 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (7,050 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,455 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (410 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (2,957 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (536 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
English Opening
50.4%
Variations (5)
English Opening: King's English Variation
51.0%
English Opening: Agincourt Defense
50.2%
English Opening: Anglo-Scandinavian Defense
52.0%
English Opening: King's English Variation, Reversed Sicilian
52.2%
English Opening: Symmetrical Variation
50.5%
Analyze English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined scores 47.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 48.4% — from 28K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
28K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate?

Playing the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined, Black wins 44.7%, draws 6.3% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 28K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined perform best?

The English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.4% (7.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (10K games) against 49.3% in Rapid (1.4K games).

How sharp is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined?

The English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 231 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 641 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.7%, draws 7.3% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.0%, draws 7.3% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.7%, draws 1.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 189 Lichess games.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.3%, draws 7.5% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.1%, draws 8.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.

Is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined a good opening?

The English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.7% of its games and loses 48.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.