TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined

28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.9%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.4%Based on 28K games
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.7%6.3%48.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Be7
English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined
Analyzen=28K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.3%

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 48.4%), based on 28K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~42%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.2% win rate (21 games)
  • 1000-1199: 32.0% win rate (75 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.9% win rate (231 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.9% win rate (641 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.6% win rate (1,523 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.8% win rate (3,675 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.5% win rate (6,977 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.7% win rate (10,950 games)
  • 2500+: 42.0% win rate (3,536 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Bullet (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.7% win rate (189 games)
  • Bullet: 44.3% win rate (15,890 games)
  • Blitz: 45.3% win rate (10,115 games)
  • Rapid: 45.1% win rate (1,358 games)
  • Classical: 50.3% win rate (77 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 27.7% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (99 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (106 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (297 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (253 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (712 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (611 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,667 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,642 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (296 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (3,062 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (3,470 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (384 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (7,050 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,455 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (410 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (2,957 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (536 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
English Opening
50.4%
Variations (5)
English Opening: King's English Variation
51.0%
English Opening: Agincourt Defense
50.2%
English Opening: Anglo-Scandinavian Defense
52.0%
English Opening: King's English Variation, Reversed Sicilian
52.2%
English Opening: Symmetrical Variation
50.5%
Analyze English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate?

The English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 28K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined perform best?

The English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 64.7% win rate for white (75 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.2%) outperforms Classical (40.1%) by 10.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined?

The English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 54.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-59.7%) win rate for white, based on 231 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 48.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 641 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 48.0% (90% CI: 42.1%-54.0%) win rate for white (189 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.9%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.1%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.3%-48.8%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

Is the English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined a good opening?

The English Opening: Neo-Catalan Declined is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.