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English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined

248K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.0%

45%60%
Floor53.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.1%.

Measured over 248K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 7.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 248K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
248K
Best context
60.4% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
Worst context
47.6% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Average game length
40 moves
Games that end decisively
92.9%
Draws
7.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.4% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 56.3%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (103 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (320 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (271 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (51 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (981 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (809 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (182 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 88.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (460 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (2,951 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,822 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (482 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (514 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (7,775 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (11,437 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (1,137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (529 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (18,531 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (31,401 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (3,002 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (186 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (136 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (48,990 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (53,759 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (4,047 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (81 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (43,010 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (12,924 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.3% expected score (407 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
English Opening
50.4%
Variations (5)
English Opening: King's English Variation
51.0%
English Opening: Agincourt Defense
50.2%
English Opening: Anglo-Scandinavian Defense
52.0%
English Opening: King's English Variation, Reversed Sicilian
52.2%
English Opening: Symmetrical Variation
50.5%
Analyze English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined scores 54.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 54.1% — from 248K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
248K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate?

Playing the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined, White wins 50.4%, draws 7.1% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 248K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined perform best?

The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.8% (56K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (114K games) against 54.4% in Rapid (9.3K games).

How sharp is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined?

The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined has a sharpness score of 92.9 (decisive), meaning 92.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 198 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 656 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.9%, draws 6.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.2%, draws 7.5% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 8.2% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 56.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.6%, draws 5.8% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 123K Lichess games.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.0%, draws 8.4% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 114K Lichess games.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.3%, draws 10.0% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games.

What is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 44.6%, draws 15.5% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 486 Lichess games.

Is the English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined a good opening?

The English Opening: Agincourt Defense, Neo-Catalan Declined is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.4% of its games and loses 42.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.