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Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense

1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.7%

45%55%
Floor49.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.

Measured over 1.2M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.2M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.2M
Best context
58.8% at 2200-2499 UltraBullet
Worst context
36.8% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.3% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.4% at 0-999, 57.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (367 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (46,066 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (97,452 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (52,739 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (570 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (682 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (50,509 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (82,863 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (35,022 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (1,297 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (1,823 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (63,574 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (83,191 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (30,311 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (2,242 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (3,575 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (70,533 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (81,293 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (20,497 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (2,297 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (4,604 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (72,731 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (59,328 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (11,154 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (753 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (4,386 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (74,563 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (46,317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (4,608 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (3,025 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (59,904 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (19,934 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (1,612 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (1,360 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (43,661 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7,592 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (436 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (46 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (11,334 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (3,116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (156 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (23 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Zukertort Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Zukertort Opening: Tennison Gambit
48.2%
Zukertort Opening: Queen's Gambit Invitation
51.7%
Zukertort Opening: Sicilian Invitation
49.9%
Zukertort Opening: Kingside Fianchetto
49.3%
Zukertort Opening: Slav Invitation
50.4%
Analyze Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense scores 49.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.6% and 49.8% — from 1.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate?

Playing the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense perform best?

The Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.0% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.4% in Blitz (481K games) against 46.7% in Rapid (157K games).

How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense?

The Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 197K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 170K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 181K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 178K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 149K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 130K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 53K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.0%, draws 15.9% and loses 37.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 51.1%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 493K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 481K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 43.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 157K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 37.8%, draws 6.5% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense a good opening?

The Zukertort Opening: Reversed Mexican Defense is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.6% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.