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Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation

886K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.9%

40%55%
Floor47.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.0%.

Measured over 886K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 886K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
886K
Best context
50.4% at 1600-1799 Classical
Worst context
40.9% at 2000-2199 UltraBullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.5% at 0-999, 49.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (73 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (6,899 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (16,931 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (7,974 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (103 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (9,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (16,725 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (6,590 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (260 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (453 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (16,327 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (22,578 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (7,625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (430 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (1,152 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (26,751 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (40,447 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (10,152 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (770 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (1,745 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (42,335 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (70,012 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (14,194 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (1,068 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (1,600 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (68,009 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (94,779 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (18,322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (888 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (608 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (83,230 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (95,149 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (11,146 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (431 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (89,911 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (57,753 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (4,251 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 32.7% expected score (91 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (234 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (31,346 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (6,977 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (192 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Zukertort Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Zukertort Opening: Tennison Gambit
48.2%
Zukertort Opening: Queen's Gambit Invitation
51.7%
Zukertort Opening: Sicilian Invitation
49.9%
Zukertort Opening: Kingside Fianchetto
49.3%
Zukertort Opening: Slav Invitation
50.4%
Analyze Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation scores 47.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 48.0% — from 886K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
886K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate?

Playing the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 886K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation perform best?

The Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.4% (129K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (421K games) against 46.9% in Rapid (80K games).

How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation?

The Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 79K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 129K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 184K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 191K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 152K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.8%, draws 6.9% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.0%, draws 1.4% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 374K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 421K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 80K Lichess games.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.4%, draws 6.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation a good opening?

The Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.7% of its games and loses 50.0%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.