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Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation

886K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.9%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.0%Based on 886K games
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.0%
Outcome Distribution
45.7%4.4%50.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...f5
Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation
Analyzen=886K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 48.0%), based on 886K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.0% win rate (31,980 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.3% win rate (32,907 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.3% win rate (47,413 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (79,272 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (129,354 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (183,598 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.4% win rate (190,564 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.4% win rate (152,278 games)
  • 2500+: 40.8% win rate (38,750 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.0% win rate (6,348 games)
  • Bullet: 46.4% win rate (373,929 games)
  • Blitz: 45.3% win rate (421,351 games)
  • Rapid: 44.1% win rate (80,446 games)
  • Classical: 43.4% win rate (4,042 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (73 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (6,899 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (16,931 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (7,974 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (103 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (9,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (16,725 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (6,590 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (260 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (453 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (16,327 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (22,578 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (7,625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (430 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (1,152 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (26,751 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (40,447 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (10,152 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (770 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (1,745 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (42,335 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (70,012 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (14,194 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (1,068 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (1,600 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (68,009 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (94,779 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (18,322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (888 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (608 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (83,230 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (95,149 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (11,146 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (431 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (89,911 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (57,753 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (4,251 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 32.7% expected score (91 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (234 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (31,346 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (6,977 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (192 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Zukertort Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Zukertort Opening: Tennison Gambit
48.2%
Zukertort Opening: Queen's Gambit Invitation
51.7%
Zukertort Opening: Sicilian Invitation
49.9%
Zukertort Opening: Kingside Fianchetto
49.3%
Zukertort Opening: Slav Invitation
50.4%
Analyze Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate?

The Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 886K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation perform best?

The Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (39K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (52.6%) outperforms Classical (49.8%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation?

The Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 79K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 129K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 184K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 191K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 152K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.7%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.3%) win rate for white (374K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate for white (421K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate for white (80K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.1%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation a good opening?

The Zukertort Opening: Dutch Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.