What is the Zaire Defense expected score for Black?
Snapshot
Overall, the Zaire Defense family has a 42.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.8% and 43.7%), aggregated from 1 variations and 7.0K Lichess games.
Zaire Defense
1 variations · 7.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Zaire Defense leaves Black at 42.8% — consider alternatives.
The minimum advantage of -16.5% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.
You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 43.7%Aggregated from 1 variations
0%42.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 43.7%
ContextOverall · n=7.0K
Outcome Distribution
41.3%2.9%55.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Ng8
Zaire Defense
Variations1
Games (Context)7.0K
Avg Length33 moves
Draw Rate2.9%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
Black Win% by Rating
Improves with rating: 42% → 45%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 41.6% win rate (546 games)
- 1000-1199: 38.2% win rate (782 games)
- 1200-1399: 38.4% win rate (1,251 games)
- 1400-1599: 41.2% win rate (1,149 games)
- 1600-1799: 42.7% win rate (1,067 games)
- 1800-1999: 40.2% win rate (927 games)
- 2000-2199: 45.6% win rate (567 games)
- 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (578 games)
- 2500+: 45.0% win rate (84 games)
Black Win% by Time Control
Best in UltraBullet (46%), worst in Classical (30%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 46.3% win rate (19 games)
- Bullet: 45.6% win rate (3,418 games)
- Blitz: 37.7% win rate (2,957 games)
- Rapid: 33.3% win rate (540 games)
- Classical: 29.7% win rate (17 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · Black expected scores
Black% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (204 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (262 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (79 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (338 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (349 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.8% expected score (90 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (426 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.6% expected score (689 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (121 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (495 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (539 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.2% expected score (108 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (522 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (457 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (81 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (564 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 35.0% expected score (322 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (40 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (376 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (172 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (416 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (160 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (77 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (1)
Analyze Zaire Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Zaire Defense win rate?
The Zaire Defense family has a 55.8% (90% CI: 54.8%-56.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 7.0K rated games from Lichess.
How many Zaire Defense variations are there?
This analysis covers 1 Zaire Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Zaire Defense perform best?
The Zaire Defense family performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 59.0% win rate for white (1.3K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Zaire Defense better in blitz or rapid?
Rapid (61.8%) outperforms Bullet (52.3%) by 9.5% across all Zaire Defense variations.
How sharp is the Zaire Defense?
Zaire Defense games are 97.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Zaire Defense a good opening family?
The Zaire Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 55.8% (90% CI: 54.8%-56.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.