Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Zaire Defense

1 variations · 7.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
4...Ng8
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

42.8%

35%55%
Floor41.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.7%.

Measured over 7.0K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.0K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#61 of 62
Games in this context
7.0K
Best context
48.8% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
35.6% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Variations measured
1
Average game length
33 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Zaire DefenseBest here
1.d4 Nc6 2.d5 Nb8 3.e4 Nf6 4.e5 Ng8
Floor 41.8% · 7.0K games
42.8%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.9% at 0-999, 46.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (204 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (262 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (338 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (349 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.8% expected score (90 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (426 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.6% expected score (689 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (121 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (495 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (539 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.2% expected score (108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (522 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (81 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (564 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 35.0% expected score (322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (376 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (416 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (160 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (77 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Zaire Defense7.0K games
42.8%Floor 41.8%
Analyze Zaire Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Zaire Defense family scores 42.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.8% and 43.7% — from 7.0K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
7.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Zaire Defense win rate?

Across the Zaire Defense's 1 variations, Black wins 41.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 7.0K rated games from Lichess.

How many Zaire Defense variations are there?

1 Zaire Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Zaire Defense perform best?

The Zaire Defense family performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 47.2% (578 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Zaire Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Zaire Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 39.5% in Blitz (3.0K games) against 35.8% in Rapid (540 games).

How sharp is the Zaire Defense?

Zaire Defense games are 97.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Zaire Defense a good opening family?

The Zaire Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 41.3% and loses 55.8%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.