What is the Vulture Defense expected score for Black?
Snapshot
Overall, the Vulture Defense family has a 53.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.7% and 53.8%), aggregated from 1 variations and 25K Lichess games.
Vulture Defense
1 variations · 25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Vulture Defense gives Black a 53.3% expected score — a strong opening choice.
With a minimum advantage of 5.4%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.
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Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 53.8%Aggregated from 1 variations
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 53.8%
ContextOverall · n=25K
Outcome Distribution
50.9%4.7%44.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Ne4
Vulture Defense
Variations1
Games (Context)25K
Avg Length36 moves
Draw Rate4.7%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
Black Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 46% → 41%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 46.3% win rate (99 games)
- 1000-1199: 43.4% win rate (228 games)
- 1200-1399: 45.9% win rate (612 games)
- 1400-1599: 50.9% win rate (1,084 games)
- 1600-1799: 48.5% win rate (2,990 games)
- 1800-1999: 52.9% win rate (5,805 games)
- 2000-2199: 52.1% win rate (7,265 games)
- 2200-2499: 50.5% win rate (6,023 games)
- 2500+: 40.5% win rate (662 games)
Black Win% by Time Control
Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Classical (39%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 54.9% win rate (34 games)
- Bullet: 52.3% win rate (7,819 games)
- Blitz: 50.7% win rate (14,749 games)
- Rapid: 46.7% win rate (2,072 games)
- Classical: 39.3% win rate (94 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · Black expected scores
Black% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (58 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (63 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (130 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (104 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (403 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (104 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (299 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (584 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (185 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (769 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,868 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (330 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (1,491 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (3,640 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (639 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (30 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,153 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (4,524 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (549 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (2,638 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (3,157 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (217 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (272 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (385 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (5 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (1)
Analyze Vulture Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Vulture Defense win rate?
The Vulture Defense family has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.9%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 25K rated games from Lichess.
How many Vulture Defense variations are there?
This analysis covers 1 Vulture Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Vulture Defense perform best?
The Vulture Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (662 games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Vulture Defense better in blitz or rapid?
Rapid (47.4%) outperforms Classical (48.7%) by -1.3% across all Vulture Defense variations.
How sharp is the Vulture Defense?
Vulture Defense games are 95.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 36 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Vulture Defense a good opening family?
The Vulture Defense family is slightly favors black overall with a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.9%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.