Vulture Defense
1 variations · 25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
53.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.8%.
Measured over 25K games at this level and clock.
A strong opening choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #3 of 62
- Games in this context
- 25K
- Best context
- 57.2% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 51.6% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Variations measured
- 1
- Average game length
- 36 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.0% at 0-999, 43.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (58 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (63 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (130 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (104 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (403 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (104 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (299 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (584 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (185 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (769 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,868 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (330 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (1,491 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (3,640 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (639 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (30 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,153 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (4,524 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (549 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (2,638 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (3,157 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (217 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (272 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (385 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (5 games)
1 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Vulture Defense family scores 53.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.7% and 53.8% — from 25K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 25K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Vulture Defense win rate?
Across the Vulture Defense's 1 variations, Black wins 50.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 25K rated games from Lichess.
How many Vulture Defense variations are there?
1 Vulture Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Vulture Defense perform best?
The Vulture Defense family performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 55.2% (5.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Vulture Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Vulture Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.5% in Blitz (15K games) against 49.7% in Rapid (2.1K games).
How sharp is the Vulture Defense?
Vulture Defense games are 95.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 36 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Vulture Defense a good opening family?
The Vulture Defense family is good for Black overall. Across its games, Black wins 50.9% and loses 44.4%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.