Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit
2.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.
Measured over 2.4K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.4K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.4K
- Best context
- 51.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.2%
- Draws
- 6.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 45.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 22.4% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 25.5% expected score (25 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 65.4% expected score (31 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (36 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (72 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (80 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (134 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (212 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (266 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (689 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (34 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (407 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (173 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit scores 50.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 52.6% — from 2.4K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.4K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit win rate?
Playing the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit, Black wins 47.5%, draws 6.8% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 2.4K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit perform best?
The Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (989 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.3% in Blitz (1.3K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (132 games).
How sharp is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit?
The Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.3%, draws 8.7% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 165 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 371 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.0%, draws 7.7% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 989 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 47.2%, draws 7.2% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 587 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 952 Lichess games.
What is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 7.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
What is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.1%, draws 8.6% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 132 Lichess games.
Is the Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit a good opening?
The Vienna Game: Mieses Variation, Erben Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.5% of its games and loses 45.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.