Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation
663 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.2%.
Measured over 663 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 1.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 663 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 663
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 98.6%
- Draws
- 1.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 32.4% at 0-999, 68.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 25.7% expected score (17 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (35 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (142 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (111 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (31 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (51 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 32.1% expected score (18 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation scores 49.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.8% and 52.2% — from 663 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 663+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate?
Playing the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation, White wins 48.2%, draws 1.4% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 663 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation perform best?
The Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (151 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation?
The Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation has a sharpness score of 98.6 (very decisive), meaning 98.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.2%, draws 0.8% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 186 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.4%, draws 1.6% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 151 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.7%, draws 1.5% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 437 Lichess games.
What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 41.9%, draws 1.5% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 169 Lichess games.
Is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation a good opening?
The Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 48.2% of its games and loses 50.3%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.