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Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation

663 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score49.0%Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 52.2%Based on 663 games
0%49.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
48.2%1.4%50.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nf3
Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation
Analyzen=663
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness99%
Draw Rate1.4%

What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation has a 49.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.8% and 52.2%), based on 663 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -4.8% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.8% · Bullet best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 36% → 64%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 35.8% win rate (39 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.5% win rate (49 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.6% win rate (63 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.3% win rate (86 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.2% win rate (186 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.4% win rate (151 games)
  • 2000-2199: 55.7% win rate (64 games)
  • 2200-2499: 24.4% win rate (21 games)
  • 2500+: 63.6% win rate (4 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 23.8% win rate (9 games)
  • Bullet: 51.7% win rate (437 games)
  • Blitz: 41.9% win rate (169 games)
  • Rapid: 45.3% win rate (46 games)
  • Classical: 14.3% win rate (2 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 25.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (142 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (111 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 32.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van't Kruijs Opening
48.5%
Variations (3)
Van't Kruijs Opening: Bouncing Bishop Variation
67.4%
Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Akahi Variation
47.5%
Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Ekolu Variation
50.1%
Analyze Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate?

The Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 663 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation perform best?

The Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 53.4% win rate for white (151 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Blitz (41.9%) by 9.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation?

The Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation has a sharpness score of 98.6 (very decisive), meaning 98.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 41.2%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 186 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 0.8% draw rate.

What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-55.6%) win rate for white (437 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 35.8%-48.2%) win rate for white (169 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

Is the Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation a good opening?

The Van't Kruijs Opening: Keoni-Hiva Gambit, Alua Variation is slightly favors black with a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-51.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.