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Analyzer

Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit

667 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score49.0%Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 52.2%Based on 667 games
0%49.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
47.8%2.3%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.e4
Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit
Analyzen=667
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.3%

What is the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit has a 49.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.8% and 52.2%), based on 667 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -5.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.6 · Trap factor: -2.0 · n=667

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.3% win rate (99 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.4% win rate (65 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.7% win rate (64 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (81 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.3% win rate (99 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.3% win rate (128 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.7% win rate (88 games)
  • 2200-2499: 35.2% win rate (34 games)
  • 2500+: 42.9% win rate (9 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (51%), worst in Rapid (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • UltraBullet: 45.9% win rate (17 games)
  • Bullet: 46.4% win rate (392 games)
  • Blitz: 50.6% win rate (217 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (41 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (55 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 68.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (52 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 40.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Battambang Variation
48.5%
Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit
52.3%
Van Geet Opening: Billockus-Johansen Gambit
50.6%
Van Geet Opening: Caro-Kann Variation, St. Patrick's Attack
48.4%
Van Geet Opening: Damhaug Gambit
47.7%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit win rate?

The Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 667 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 56.4% win rate for white (65 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.6%) outperforms Bullet (46.4%) by 4.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit?

The Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.7 (very decisive), meaning 97.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 41.1%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 128 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.3%-50.5%) win rate for white (392 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 45.0%-56.1%) win rate for white (217 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Nowokunski Gambit is slightly favors black with a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.