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Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit

83K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.3%

45%60%
Floor54.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.6%.

Measured over 83K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 83K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
83K
Best context
62.4% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
48.9% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.5 · Trap factor: +14.3 · 83K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.9% at 0-999, 54.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (864 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,732 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (811 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,686 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (3,006 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,319 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (3,297 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (4,643 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (2,058 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (4,317 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (7,683 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (2,768 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (133 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.4% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,420 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (9,326 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (3,219 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (132 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (6,656 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (7,625 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (2,375 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.6% expected score (101 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (4,574 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (3,274 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.4% expected score (609 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (2,307 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,138 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (479 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (267 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Reversed Nimzowitsch
48.6%
Van Geet Opening: Dunst-Perrenet Gambit
52.1%
Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense
48.1%
Van Geet Opening: Napoleon Attack
51.9%
Van Geet Opening: Sicilian Two Knights
47.4%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit scores 54.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.0% and 54.6% — from 83K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
83K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate?

Playing the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 83K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (17K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.8% in Blitz (39K games) against 55.6% in Rapid (13K games).

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit?

The Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 53.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 53.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 40.9%, draws 24.1% and loses 34.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 767 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 50.3%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 254 Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 53.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 55.8%, draws 6.9% and loses 37.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.3%. It rests on 485 Lichess games.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.3% of its games and loses 43.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.