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Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation

65K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.3%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.6%Based on 65K games
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.6%
Outcome Distribution
51.5%3.5%45.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Qh4
Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation
Analyzen=65K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.6%), based on 65K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 38% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 37.8% win rate (156 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.4% win rate (428 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.2% win rate (918 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.3% win rate (1,790 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.1% win rate (3,517 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.4% win rate (6,838 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.2% win rate (11,833 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.0% win rate (27,266 games)
  • 2500+: 52.6% win rate (12,750 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.2% win rate (230 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (50,518 games)
  • Blitz: 50.7% win rate (13,844 games)
  • Rapid: 49.7% win rate (870 games)
  • Classical: 52.1% win rate (34 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 19.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (200 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (194 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 33.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (357 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (442 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (788 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (843 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (139 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,683 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (1,642 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (162 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (46 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (3,839 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (2,803 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (142 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (7,575 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (3,987 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (233 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (82 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (23,614 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (3,522 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (12,394 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (338 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Battambang Variation
48.5%
Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit
52.3%
Van Geet Opening: Billockus-Johansen Gambit
50.6%
Van Geet Opening: Caro-Kann Variation, St. Patrick's Attack
48.4%
Van Geet Opening: Damhaug Gambit
47.7%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate?

The Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 65K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.6% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.2%) by 0.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation?

The Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 37.8% (90% CI: 31.5%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 156 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.5%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 428 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 918 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-56.6%) win rate for white (230 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.1%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.4%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.0%-52.5%) win rate for white (870 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.