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Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation

65K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.3%

45%60%
Floor53.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.

Measured over 65K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 65K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
65K
Best context
54.9% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
50.0% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 34.8% at 0-999, 57.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 19.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (200 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (194 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 33.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (357 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (442 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (788 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (843 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (139 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,683 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (1,642 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (162 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (46 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (3,839 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (2,803 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (142 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (7,575 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (3,987 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (233 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (82 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (23,614 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (3,522 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (12,394 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (338 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Reversed Nimzowitsch
48.6%
Van Geet Opening: Dunst-Perrenet Gambit
52.1%
Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense
48.1%
Van Geet Opening: Napoleon Attack
51.9%
Van Geet Opening: Sicilian Two Knights
47.4%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation scores 53.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 53.6% — from 65K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
65K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate?

Playing the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 65K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.0% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (14K games) against 52.1% in Rapid (870 games).

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation?

The Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 37.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 58.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 156 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 46.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 428 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 918 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.3%, draws 1.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 230 Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 51K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 870 Lichess games.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Novosibirsk Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.5% of its games and loses 45.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.