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Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit

1.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 51.2%Based on 1.7K games
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 51.2%
Outcome Distribution
47.5%3.4%49.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nc6
Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit
Analyzen=1.7K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 51.2%), based on 1.7K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -3.4% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 33%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.9% win rate (23 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.5% win rate (54 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.9% win rate (72 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.9% win rate (166 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.6% win rate (209 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.5% win rate (483 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.8% win rate (474 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.9% win rate (173 games)
  • 2500+: 33.3% win rate (27 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (48%), worst in UltraBullet (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.9% win rate (14 games)
  • Bullet: 47.5% win rate (1,188 games)
  • Blitz: 47.8% win rate (437 games)
  • Rapid: 44.3% win rate (38 games)
  • Classical: 45.5% win rate (4 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (45 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (101 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (133 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (319 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (152 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (101 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (152 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Reversed Nimzowitsch
48.6%
Van Geet Opening: Dunst-Perrenet Gambit
52.1%
Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense
48.1%
Van Geet Opening: Napoleon Attack
51.9%
Van Geet Opening: Sicilian Two Knights
47.4%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit win rate?

The Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (483 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.8%) outperforms Blitz (47.3%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit?

The Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.1%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 166 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 41.6%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 209 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 47.1%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 483 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a 48.5% (90% CI: 44.7%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 474 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a 46.1% (90% CI: 40.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 173 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-52.2%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 43.4%-51.2%) win rate for white (437 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Hergert Gambit is statistically balanced with a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.