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Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit

36K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.6%

45%55%
Floor49.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.0%.

Measured over 36K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 36K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
36K
Best context
52.9% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Worst context
45.1% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +2.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.2% at 0-999, 53.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (998 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (2,091 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (1,281 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (52 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,884 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (1,092 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (182 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (1,258 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (1,840 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (777 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (58 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (484 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,636 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,971 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (753 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (703 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (1,941 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,637 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (464 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (806 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (2,188 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (1,505 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (340 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (330 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,932 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (1,112 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (2,772 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (709 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (458 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Reversed Nimzowitsch
48.6%
Van Geet Opening: Dunst-Perrenet Gambit
52.1%
Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense
48.1%
Van Geet Opening: Napoleon Attack
51.9%
Van Geet Opening: Sicilian Two Knights
47.4%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit scores 49.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 50.0% — from 36K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
36K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate?

Playing the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 36K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.7% (475 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (13K games) against 50.6% in Rapid (4.9K games).

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit?

The Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 475 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 46.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 45.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 216 Lichess games.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Hector Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.8% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.