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Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit

42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Nxe4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.7%

45%55%
Floor49.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.1%.

Measured over 42K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 42K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
42K
Best context
52.5% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Worst context
46.8% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +0.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.6 · Trap factor: +7.9 · 42K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.9% at 0-999, 59.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (231 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (379 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (171 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (493 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (607 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (252 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (888 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,103 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (379 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,571 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (2,365 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (702 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (55 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,826 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (5,482 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,188 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (52 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (3,360 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (7,873 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,495 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (3,349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (3,518 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (669 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,966 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (417 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (175 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.9% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Reversed Nimzowitsch
48.6%
Van Geet Opening: Dunst-Perrenet Gambit
52.1%
Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense
48.1%
Van Geet Opening: Napoleon Attack
51.9%
Van Geet Opening: Sicilian Two Knights
47.4%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit scores 49.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.3% and 50.1% — from 42K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
42K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate?

Playing the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 42K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 50.9% (9.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.2% in Blitz (22K games) against 50.8% in Rapid (4.9K games).

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit?

The Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 45.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 781 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 187 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 54.4%, draws 0.9% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 174 Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 51.0%, draws 7.8% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 121 Lichess games.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense, Steiner Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.9% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.