TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit

53K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.3%Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 51.7%Based on 53K games
0%51.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 51.7%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%3.4%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.f3
Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit
Analyzen=53K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 51.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.9% and 51.7%), based on 53K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.4% win rate (4,882 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.7% win rate (5,357 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.3% win rate (4,975 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.4% win rate (5,458 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.6% win rate (5,115 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (6,728 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.1% win rate (8,211 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.8% win rate (8,910 games)
  • 2500+: 53.1% win rate (2,878 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.0% win rate (1,510 games)
  • Bullet: 50.2% win rate (28,135 games)
  • Blitz: 49.2% win rate (18,178 games)
  • Rapid: 47.4% win rate (4,533 games)
  • Classical: 44.2% win rate (158 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (1,461 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (2,502 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (902 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,365 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (2,848 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,093 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,552 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (2,301 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,008 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (132 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (2,098 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (2,431 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (749 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (259 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (2,148 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (2,341 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (344 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (3,845 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (2,296 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (253 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (490 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (5,504 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (2,072 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (139 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (189 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (7,366 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,311 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (2,796 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Battambang Variation
48.5%
Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit
52.3%
Van Geet Opening: Billockus-Johansen Gambit
50.6%
Van Geet Opening: Caro-Kann Variation, St. Patrick's Attack
48.4%
Van Geet Opening: Damhaug Gambit
47.7%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate?

The Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 53K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (8.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.2%) outperforms Classical (44.2%) by 6.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit?

The Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-52.1%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.7%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.8%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.6%) win rate for white (4.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 37.8%-50.7%) win rate for white (158 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.