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Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit

53K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.3%

45%55%
Floor50.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.7%.

Measured over 53K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 53K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
53K
Best context
55.9% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
45.6% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.5%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (1,461 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (2,502 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (902 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,365 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (2,848 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,093 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,552 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (2,301 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,008 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (132 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (2,098 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (2,431 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (749 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (259 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (2,148 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (2,341 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (344 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (3,845 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (2,296 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (253 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (490 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (5,504 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (2,072 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (139 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (189 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (7,366 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,311 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (2,796 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Reversed Nimzowitsch
48.6%
Van Geet Opening: Dunst-Perrenet Gambit
52.1%
Van Geet Opening: Grünfeld Defense
48.1%
Van Geet Opening: Napoleon Attack
51.9%
Van Geet Opening: Sicilian Two Knights
47.4%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit scores 51.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.9% and 51.7% — from 53K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
53K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate?

Playing the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 53K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (2.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.2% in Blitz (18K games) against 49.6% in Rapid (4.5K games).

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit?

The Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 46.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 50.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 44.2%, draws 7.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 158 Lichess games.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.6% of its games and loses 47.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.