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Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit

83K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.3%Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 54.6%Based on 83K games
0%54.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 54.6%
Outcome Distribution
52.3%3.9%43.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.d5
Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit
Analyzen=83K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 54.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.0% and 54.6%), based on 83K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.5 · Trap factor: +14.3 · n=83K

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.2% win rate (3,413 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.0% win rate (6,039 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.8% win rate (10,107 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.7% win rate (14,966 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.5% win rate (19,165 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.9% win rate (16,790 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.0% win rate (8,505 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.0% win rate (3,585 games)
  • 2500+: 40.9% win rate (767 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in UltraBullet (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.3% win rate (254 games)
  • Bullet: 51.5% win rate (30,600 games)
  • Blitz: 52.6% win rate (38,694 games)
  • Rapid: 53.3% win rate (13,304 games)
  • Classical: 55.8% win rate (485 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (864 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,732 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (811 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,686 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (3,006 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,319 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (3,297 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (4,643 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (2,058 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (4,317 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (7,683 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (2,768 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (133 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.4% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,420 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (9,326 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (3,219 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (132 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (6,656 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (7,625 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (2,375 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.6% expected score (101 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (4,574 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (3,274 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.4% expected score (609 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (2,307 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,138 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (479 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (267 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Van Geet Opening
49.5%
Variations (5)
Van Geet Opening: Battambang Variation
48.5%
Van Geet Opening: Billockus-Johansen Gambit
50.6%
Van Geet Opening: Caro-Kann Variation, St. Patrick's Attack
48.4%
Van Geet Opening: Damhaug Gambit
47.7%
Van Geet Opening: Dougherty Gambit
49.6%
Analyze Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate?

The Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 83K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit perform best?

The Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.3%) by 3.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit?

The Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 40.9% (90% CI: 38.0%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 767 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 24.1% draw rate.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-55.4%) win rate for white (254 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.0%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.1%) win rate for white (39K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.0%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit has a 55.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-59.5%) win rate for white (485 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit a good opening?

The Van Geet Opening: Berlin Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.