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Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 53.6%Based on 11K games
0%52.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 53.6%
Outcome Distribution
50.8%4.0%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.e4
Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit
Analyzen=11K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.0% and 53.6%), based on 11K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.0 · Trap factor: +8.8 · n=11K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (374 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (972 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.9% win rate (1,607 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (1,941 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.8% win rate (1,617 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.5% win rate (1,435 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.0% win rate (1,337 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.0% win rate (1,155 games)
  • 2500+: 59.6% win rate (157 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in UltraBullet (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.1% win rate (59 games)
  • Bullet: 50.5% win rate (4,229 games)
  • Blitz: 51.9% win rate (4,721 games)
  • Rapid: 48.6% win rate (1,549 games)
  • Classical: 55.8% win rate (37 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (143 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (191 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (333 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (493 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (439 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (863 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (295 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (514 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (950 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (438 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (509 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (715 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (367 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (716 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (151 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (788 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (464 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (80 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (681 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (438 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.1% expected score (106 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (51 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Tarrasch Defense
48.8%
Variations (5)
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation
49.0%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Advance Variation
44.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
46.6%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Carlsbad Variation
48.9%
Tarrasch Defense: Classical Variation, Classical Tarrasch Gambit
45.0%
Analyze Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate?

The Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit perform best?

The Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.6% win rate for white (157 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.1%) by 4.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit?

The Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 42.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 374 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 972 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 59.6% (90% CI: 53.2%-65.9%) win rate for white, based on 157 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.7%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.1%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.7%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The Tarrasch Defense: Marshall Gambit is statistically favors white with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.