St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation
11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.1%.
Measured over 11K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 11K
- Best context
- 53.5% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.3% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.9% at 0-999, 45.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (33 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (187 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (117 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (268 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (433 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (42 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (619 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (1,039 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (131 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (854 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,633 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (230 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (962 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (1,190 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (98 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,554 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (512 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 22.1% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (814 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (95 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation scores 49.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 50.1% — from 11K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 11K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate?
Playing the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 11K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation perform best?
The St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 53.8% (746 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.0% in Blitz (5.1K games) against 46.2% in Rapid (544 games).
How sharp is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation?
The St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.6%, draws 1.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 317 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 746 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.2%, draws 6.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 910 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games.
What is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.0%, draws 6.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 544 Lichess games.
Is the St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation a good opening?
The St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.2% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.