What is the St. George Defense expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the St. George Defense family has a 51.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 51.5%), aggregated from 4 variations and 3.3M Lichess games.
St. George Defense
4 variations · 3.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
St. George Defense is balanced for White at 51.5% expected score.
This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.
You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.5%Aggregated from 4 variations
0%51.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.5%
ContextOverall · n=3.3M
Outcome Distribution
49.7%3.5%46.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...a6
St. George Defense
Variations4
Games (Context)3.3M
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate3.5%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall · limited data
No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 50% → 48%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 50.2% win rate (164,544 games)
- 1000-1199: 50.2% win rate (318,367 games)
- 1200-1399: 50.2% win rate (502,849 games)
- 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (654,276 games)
- 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (642,700 games)
- 1800-1999: 49.4% win rate (497,821 games)
- 2000-2199: 49.3% win rate (287,478 games)
- 2200-2499: 48.4% win rate (169,389 games)
- 2500+: 48.1% win rate (58,056 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Bullet (49%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 55.2% win rate (13,587 games)
- Bullet: 49.2% win rate (1,162,807 games)
- Blitz: 49.7% win rate (1,590,241 games)
- Rapid: 50.4% win rate (506,493 games)
- Classical: 50.8% win rate (22,352 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (1,304 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (49,381 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (82,269 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (31,182 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (408 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (2,321 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (91,605 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (163,620 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (59,682 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (1,139 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (3,377 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (142,429 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (253,577 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (99,662 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (3,804 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (2,974 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (175,377 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (346,008 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (121,437 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (8,480 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (1,603 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (206,925 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (318,505 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (109,162 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (6,505 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (1,360 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (178,971 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (251,751 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (64,155 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (1,584 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (483 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (154,622 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (114,383 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (17,588 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.9% expected score (402 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (148 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (111,868 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (53,836 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (3,508 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 71.7% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (51,629 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (6,292 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (117 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (4)
Analyze St. George Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the St. George Defense win rate?
The St. George Defense family has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, aggregated from 4 variations and 3.3M rated games from Lichess.
How many St. George Defense variations are there?
This analysis covers 4 St. George Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the St. George Defense perform best?
The St. George Defense family performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 50.2% win rate for white (503K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the St. George Defense better in blitz or rapid?
UltraBullet (55.2%) outperforms Bullet (49.2%) by 6.0% across all St. George Defense variations.
How sharp is the St. George Defense?
St. George Defense games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the St. George Defense a good opening family?
The St. George Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 4 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.