St. George Defense
4 variations · 3.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
48.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 3.3M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.3M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #24 of 62
- Games in this context
- 3.3M
- Best context
- 50.0% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.8% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
- Variations measured
- 4
- Average game length
- 34 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.7% at 0-999, 39.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (1,304 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (49,381 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (82,269 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (31,182 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (408 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (2,321 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (91,605 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (163,620 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (59,682 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (1,139 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (3,377 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (142,429 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (253,577 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (99,662 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (3,804 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (2,974 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (175,377 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (346,008 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (121,437 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (8,480 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (1,603 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (206,925 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (318,505 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (109,162 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (6,505 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (1,360 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (178,971 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (251,751 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (64,155 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (1,584 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.4% expected score (483 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (154,622 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (114,383 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (17,588 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (402 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (148 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (111,868 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (53,836 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (3,508 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 28.4% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (51,629 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (6,292 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (117 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
4 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the St. George Defense family scores 48.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 48.7% — from 3.3M Lichess games across 4 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the St. George Defense win rate?
Across the St. George Defense's 4 variations, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 3.3M rated games from Lichess.
How many St. George Defense variations are there?
4 St. George Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the St. George Defense perform best?
The St. George Defense family performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 49.3% (169K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the St. George Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the St. George Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.4% in Blitz (1.6M games) against 47.4% in Rapid (506K games).
How sharp is the St. George Defense?
St. George Defense games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the St. George Defense a good opening family?
The St. George Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.8% and loses 49.7%. Results differ between its 4 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.