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St. George Defense: Polish Variation

141K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.5%

45%55%
Floor48.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.8%.

Measured over 141K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 141K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
141K
Best context
53.3% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
42.2% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.3% at 0-999, 46.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (467 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (342 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,501 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,957 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (377 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (3,566 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (6,434 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (6,232 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (13,785 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (3,217 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (155 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (7,981 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (20,383 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (5,288 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (194 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (7,010 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (21,107 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (4,560 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (108 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (6,892 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (10,357 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (1,705 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (5,789 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (4,778 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (335 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (4,117 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (1,030 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
St. George Defense
49.7%
Variations (2)
St. George Defense: Zilbermints Gambit
53.6%
St. George Defense: San Jorge Variation
48.7%
Analyze St. George Defense: Polish Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the St. George Defense: Polish Variation scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 48.8% — from 141K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
141K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate?

Playing the St. George Defense: Polish Variation, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 141K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the St. George Defense: Polish Variation perform best?

The St. George Defense: Polish Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.0% (890 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the St. George Defense: Polish Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (80K games) against 46.3% in Rapid (17K games).

How sharp is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation?

The St. George Defense: Polish Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.2%, draws 1.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 890 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 2.2% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 44K Lichess games.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 80K Lichess games.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.7%, draws 6.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 521 Lichess games.

Is the St. George Defense: Polish Variation a good opening?

The St. George Defense: Polish Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 49.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.