Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation
7.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.
Measured over 7.8K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 10.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.8K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 7.8K
- Best context
- 48.4% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 38.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 89.1%
- Draws
- 10.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 59.0% at 0-999, 46.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 28.1% expected score (19 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 36.8% expected score (25 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (49 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 34.3% expected score (43 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (91 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 33.1% expected score (34 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (59 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (127 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (60 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (93 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (215 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (43 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (225 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (531 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.1% expected score (78 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (1,058 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (2,501 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (214 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (1,029 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (1,171 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (70 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation scores 44.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.9% and 45.8% — from 7.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 7.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate?
Playing the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation, Black wins 39.4%, draws 10.9% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 7.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation perform best?
The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (846 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 44.4% in Blitz (4.7K games) against 47.6% in Rapid (522 games).
How sharp is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation?
The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation has a sharpness score of 89.1 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 33.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 60.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.5%. It rests on 172 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.8%, draws 8.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 246 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.2%, draws 7.7% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 354 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.0%, draws 7.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 846 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.4%, draws 11.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 35.2%, draws 13.5% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 41.1%, draws 7.5% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 38.3%, draws 12.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.
What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 39.4%, draws 16.3% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 522 Lichess games.
Is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation a good opening?
The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.4% of its games and loses 49.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.