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Slav Defense: Exchange Variation

3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.0%

45%60%
Floor52.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 3.2M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.2M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.2M
Best context
61.8% at 2500+ Rapid
Worst context
46.1% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
94.9%
Draws
5.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.5% at 0-999, 65.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.6% expected score (63 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (15,873 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (18,911 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (5,920 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (39,738 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (48,782 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (14,942 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (529 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (78,950 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (101,806 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (30,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (927 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (1,906 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (124,295 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (182,699 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (53,973 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (2,563 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (1,719 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (188,907 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (294,529 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (77,844 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (4,650 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (1,797 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (262,828 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (361,127 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (88,798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (5,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (1,609 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (281,454 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (271,067 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (48,698 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (2,007 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (1,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (287,592 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (156,003 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (16,252 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (388 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 77.8% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (88,768 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (18,569 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (873 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (36 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Slav Defense
50.8%
Variations (5)
Slav Defense: Three Knights Variation
51.1%
Slav Defense: Modern Line
51.9%
Slav Defense: Quiet Variation, Pin Defense
49.6%
Slav Defense: Slav Gambit, Alekhine Attack
52.8%
Slav Defense: Schlechter Variation
50.3%
Continuations (4)
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Symmetrical Line
49.4%
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Schallopp Variation
47.9%
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Boor Attack
54.0%
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation
49.7%
Analyze Slav Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation scores 53.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.9% and 53.0% — from 3.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, White wins 50.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.9% (108K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (1.5M games) against 53.1% in Rapid (338K games).

How sharp is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation?

The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 104K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 213K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 365K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 568K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 720K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 605K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.8%, draws 6.6% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 461K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.7%, draws 8.2% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 108K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.8%, draws 6.5% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 338K Lichess games.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.6%, draws 8.6% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

Is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.4% of its games and loses 44.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.