Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation
4.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.9%.
Measured over 4.9K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 17.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.9K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.9K
- Best context
- 51.9% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 41 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 82.4%
- Draws
- 17.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 1000-1199, 49.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (50 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (78 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (543 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (361 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,086 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (93 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (414 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,098 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (43 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation scores 49.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 50.9% — from 4.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate?
Playing the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation, Black wins 41.0%, draws 17.6% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 4.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation perform best?
The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 50.6% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.3% in Blitz (3.8K games) against 46.1% in Rapid (189 games).
How sharp is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation?
The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a sharpness score of 82.4 (moderately decisive), meaning 82.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 7.5% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 671 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 28.3%, draws 39.4% and loses 32.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 51 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 41.3%, draws 14.2% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 877 Lichess games.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 41.2%, draws 18.3% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 36.0%, draws 20.2% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 189 Lichess games.
Is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation a good opening?
The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.0% of its games and loses 41.4%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.