Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation
5.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.6%.
Measured over 5.2K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.2K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 5.2K
- Best context
- 52.4% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.6% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.8%
- Draws
- 8.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 44.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 69.2% expected score (22 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (31 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (116 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (146 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (783 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (55 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (679 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (2,286 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (128 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (385 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (525 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (28 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation scores 49.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 50.6% — from 5.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 5.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate?
Playing the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Black wins 45.3%, draws 8.2% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 5.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation perform best?
The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (990 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.8% in Blitz (3.7K games) against 41.2% in Rapid (229 games).
How sharp is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation?
The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 91.8 (decisive), meaning 91.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 167 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 8.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 990 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.7%, draws 7.7% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.4%, draws 11.1% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 941 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.6%, draws 6.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.6%, draws 8.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.
What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 35.4%, draws 11.5% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 229 Lichess games.
Is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation a good opening?
The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.3% of its games and loses 46.5%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.