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Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit

456K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.5%Range (90% confident): 55.4% – 55.6%Based on 456K games
0%55.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.4% – 55.6%
Outcome Distribution
53.5%4.0%42.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.e4
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit
Analyzen=456K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 55.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.4% and 55.6%), based on 456K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +18.3% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~53%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.0% win rate (4,509 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.3% win rate (11,797 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.6% win rate (22,468 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.4% win rate (40,316 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.3% win rate (78,347 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.0% win rate (132,486 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.5% win rate (115,930 games)
  • 2200-2499: 56.2% win rate (45,262 games)
  • 2500+: 54.8% win rate (5,174 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in UltraBullet (53%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.1% win rate (709 games)
  • Bullet: 53.4% win rate (157,175 games)
  • Blitz: 53.5% win rate (248,257 games)
  • Rapid: 53.5% win rate (48,249 games)
  • Classical: 56.3% win rate (1,899 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (2,384 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (838 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 69.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (3,665 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (6,099 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (1,969 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (6,849 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (11,296 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (4,083 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (305 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (12,921 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (20,524 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (6,241 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (325 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (221 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (24,708 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (42,594 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (10,235 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (589 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (39,125 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (79,423 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (13,303 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (599 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (40,893 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (65,309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (9,551 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (164 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (23,711 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (19,535 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.5% expected score (1,976 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 69.2% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (4,027 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (1,093 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (53 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Meran Variation
50.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit
48.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit
54.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubov Variation
51.5%
Continuations (3)
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation
48.6%
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line
43.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation
38.6%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 456K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 56.2% win rate for white (45K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (56.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (53.1%) by 3.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 132K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.8%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 54.8% (90% CI: 53.6%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 11.0% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-56.2%) win rate for white (709 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.8%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.6%) win rate for white (157K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.7%) win rate for white (248K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.9%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 56.3% (90% CI: 54.4%-58.1%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit is statistically favors white with a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.