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Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit

123K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.8%Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 54.0%Based on 123K games
0%53.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 54.0%
Outcome Distribution
48.2%11.1%40.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bh4
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit
Analyzen=123K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness89%
Draw Rate11.1%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 53.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.6% and 54.0%), based on 123K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.8% · Breakpoint: Never

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.9% · Blitz best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 26%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.2% win rate (771 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.9% win rate (3,083 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.3% win rate (8,026 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.6% win rate (14,324 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.5% win rate (18,911 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (22,695 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.8% win rate (22,571 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (18,323 games)
  • 2500+: 25.7% win rate (14,295 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (82%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 81.8% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 46.4% win rate (36,938 games)
  • Blitz: 49.4% win rate (67,221 games)
  • Rapid: 48.1% win rate (17,527 games)
  • Classical: 36.5% win rate (1,309 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (276 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (395 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (1,026 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (1,617 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (434 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (2,086 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (4,535 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (1,363 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (3,506 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (7,920 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (2,779 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (118 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (4,740 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (10,407 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (3,531 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (233 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (5,305 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (13,399 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (3,743 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (247 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (5,031 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (14,491 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (2,899 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (6,085 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (10,697 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (1,489 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (8,883 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (3,760 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (462 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Meran Variation
50.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit
54.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubov Variation
51.5%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubow Variation
51.0%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 123K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 55.9% win rate for white (3.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (49.4%) outperforms Classical (36.5%) by 12.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a sharpness score of 88.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 88.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 52.3%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 771 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 55.9% (90% CI: 54.4%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.3%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.9%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 25.7% (90% CI: 25.1%-26.3%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 56 moves with a 59.6% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.8%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 16.2%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.7%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.8%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit has a 36.5% (90% CI: 34.3%-38.7%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 35.0%.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit is statistically favors white with a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.