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Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation

121K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.6%Range (90% confident): 54.4% – 54.9%Based on 121K games
0%54.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.4% – 54.9%
Outcome Distribution
52.7%3.8%43.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qe7
Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation
Analyzen=121K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 54.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.4% and 54.9%), based on 121K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.5% win rate (7,308 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.3% win rate (17,821 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.7% win rate (27,132 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.3% win rate (28,073 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.7% win rate (21,621 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.8% win rate (13,285 games)
  • 2000-2199: 55.0% win rate (5,070 games)
  • 2200-2499: 57.9% win rate (847 games)
  • 2500+: 51.6% win rate (172 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in UltraBullet (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.5% win rate (48 games)
  • Bullet: 53.0% win rate (17,027 games)
  • Blitz: 52.6% win rate (69,047 games)
  • Rapid: 52.7% win rate (33,761 games)
  • Classical: 55.6% win rate (1,446 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (1,496 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (4,016 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,770 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,837 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (10,619 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (4,270 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (3,548 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (15,242 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (7,947 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (387 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (3,203 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (15,173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (9,170 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (506 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (2,375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (12,272 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (6,639 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (332 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (1,619 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (8,239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (3,322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 68.0% expected score (104 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (1,515 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (2,975 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 65.3% expected score (569 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 63.3% expected score (361 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 66.6% expected score (74 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (150 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 121K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 57.9% win rate for white (847 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.6%) outperforms Blitz (52.6%) by 3.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.1%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 53.9%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 57.9% (90% CI: 55.1%-60.7%) win rate for white, based on 847 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 45.3%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 172 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 13.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.6%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.9%) win rate for white (69K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.2%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 53.4%-57.7%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Vinogradov Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.