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Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation

7.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.1%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 51.0%Based on 7.2K games
0%50.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 51.0%
Outcome Distribution
45.6%8.9%45.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
10.Nbd2
Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation
Analyzen=7.2K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate8.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 50.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 51.0%), based on 7.2K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 85% → 52%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 84.6% win rate (5 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1400-1599: 59.0% win rate (40 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.4% win rate (251 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.2% win rate (976 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.6% win rate (2,509 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.0% win rate (2,463 games)
  • 2500+: 51.9% win rate (950 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (57%), worst in Rapid (43%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.3% win rate (1,423 games)
  • Blitz: 45.4% win rate (4,873 games)
  • Rapid: 42.5% win rate (845 games)
  • Classical: 57.3% win rate (64 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 70.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 35.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (155 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (172 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (700 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (92 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 76.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (275 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,930 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (279 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (456 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (1,686 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (311 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.8% expected score (447 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (376 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.6% expected score (114 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 74.2% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (950 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.3%) outperforms Rapid (42.5%) by 14.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a sharpness score of 91.1 (decisive), meaning 91.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 39.4% (90% CI: 34.4%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 251 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 976 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 42.0%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 42.3%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 950 Lichess games. Average game length is 58 moves with a 21.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.5%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.6%) win rate for white (4.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 39.7%-45.3%) win rate for white (845 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.8%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, St. Petersburg Variation is statistically balanced with a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.