290 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Malkin Variation has a 49.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 54.6%), based on 290 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 43% → 33%
Best in Classical (71%), worst in Rapid (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Malkin Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 41.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 290 rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Malkin Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.5% win rate for white (115 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Malkin Variation has a sharpness score of 91.9 (decisive), meaning 91.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Malkin Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 38.9%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 116 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Malkin Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 40.9%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 115 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.9% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Malkin Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 40.0%-50.7%) win rate for white (229 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Malkin Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.8% (90% CI: 41.0%-50.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.