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Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation

2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.0%Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 54.6%Based on 2.8K games
0%53.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 54.6%
Outcome Distribution
48.3%9.4%42.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Bc5
Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation
Analyzen=2.8K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate9.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 53.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.5% and 54.6%), based on 2.8K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~47%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • 1000-1199: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.4% win rate (14 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.1% win rate (39 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.2% win rate (105 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.0% win rate (370 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (972 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.4% win rate (910 games)
  • 2500+: 47.5% win rate (345 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (32%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.3% win rate (484 games)
  • Blitz: 48.3% win rate (1,936 games)
  • Rapid: 48.2% win rate (323 games)
  • Classical: 31.9% win rate (22 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (250 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (94 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (737 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (142 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (684 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.1% expected score (144 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (165 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.9% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (910 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.3%) outperforms Rapid (48.2%) by 0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a sharpness score of 90.6 (decisive), meaning 90.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 42.3%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 105 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 39.8%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 370 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 972 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 910 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 345 Lichess games. Average game length is 58 moves with a 27.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-53.1%) win rate for white (484 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.4%-50.2%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 43.7%-52.8%) win rate for white (323 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.