148 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation has a 55.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.0% and 62.3%), based on 148 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 47%
Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | — | ||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | — | ||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation has a 39.1% (90% CI: 32.7%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 148 rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 40.5% win rate for white (96 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation has a sharpness score of 89.6 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation has a 36.8% (90% CI: 30.1%-43.7%) win rate for white (133 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Howell Attack, Ekstrom Variation is slightly favors black with a 39.1% (90% CI: 32.7%-45.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.