TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation

148 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score49.4%Range (90% confident): 43.1% – 55.7%Based on 148 games
0%49.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.1% – 55.7%
Outcome Distribution
31.8%35.1%33.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
11...Nxe5
Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation
Analyzen=148
Avg Length58 moves
Sharpness65%
Draw Rate35.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation has a 49.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.1% and 55.7%), based on 148 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~20%)

0
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1600-1799: 64.7% win rate (7 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.8% win rate (10 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.7% win rate (25 games)
  • 2200-2499: 25.3% win rate (48 games)
  • 2500+: 18.6% win rate (55 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (65%), worst in Bullet (27%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 26.8% win rate (90 games)
  • Blitz: 32.0% win rate (47 games)
  • Rapid: 65.2% win rate (10 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (1 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599————
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 34.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.1% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation has a 33.1% (90% CI: 26.9%-39.5%) win rate for white, based on 148 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 8.0% win rate for white (55 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation has a sharpness score of 64.9 (drawish), meaning 64.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 58 moves.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Breslau Variation is slightly favors black with a 33.1% (90% CI: 26.9%-39.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.