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Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.9%Range (90% confident): 55.3% – 56.4%Based on 18K games
0%55.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.3% – 56.4%
Outcome Distribution
41.6%28.5%29.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.Nbd2
Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation
Analyzen=18K
Avg Length56 moves
Sharpness72%
Draw Rate28.5%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 55.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.3% and 56.4%), based on 18K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 71% → 35%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.4% win rate (9 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.6% win rate (37 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.4% win rate (131 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.6% win rate (495 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.4% win rate (1,460 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (3,562 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (5,947 games)
  • 2500+: 35.3% win rate (6,297 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Bullet (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 38.2% win rate (5,534 games)
  • Blitz: 43.3% win rate (9,920 games)
  • Rapid: 42.1% win rate (2,254 games)
  • Classical: 45.1% win rate (230 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (85 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (339 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (60 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (184 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (589 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (2,439 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (490 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (1,695 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (3,558 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (663 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.7% expected score (2,918 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (2,436 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (830 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 73.2% expected score (113 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 41.6% (90% CI: 41.0%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 47.4% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (43.3%) outperforms Bullet (38.2%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a sharpness score of 71.5 (drawish), meaning 71.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 56 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 40.4% (90% CI: 33.5%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 131 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 15.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 43.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 495 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.8%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 12.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.8%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 53 moves with a 19.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 35.3% (90% CI: 34.4%-36.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 71 moves with a 52.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 38.2% (90% CI: 37.1%-39.3%) win rate for white (5.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 38.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.5%-44.1%) win rate for white (9.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 22.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.4%-43.9%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 30.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 39.8%-50.5%) win rate for white (230 Lichess games). Draw rate is 33.9%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Bernstein Variation is statistically favors white with a 41.6% (90% CI: 41.0%-42.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.