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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation

747 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.8%Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 47.8%Based on 747 games
0%44.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 47.8%
Outcome Distribution
42.3%4.9%52.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Nc5
Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation
Analyzen=747
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation has a 44.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.8% and 47.8%), based on 747 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 34%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 26.3% win rate (8 games)
  • 1600-1799: 20.0% win rate (16 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.3% win rate (99 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.6% win rate (233 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.5% win rate (310 games)
  • 2500+: 34.2% win rate (79 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (44%), worst in Classical (27%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 41.0% win rate (156 games)
  • Blitz: 44.2% win rate (506 games)
  • Rapid: 33.3% win rate (81 games)
  • Classical: 27.3% win rate (4 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399————
1400-1599———
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (59 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (175 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.7% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 747 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.0% win rate for white (79 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (57.6%) outperforms Blitz (51.1%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 45.2%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 233 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 310 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-61.4%) win rate for white (156 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-54.8%) win rate for white (506 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Berlin Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-55.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.