4.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 54.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.8% and 55.2%), based on 4.6K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 44% → 29%
Best in Blitz (52%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 57.5% win rate for white (913 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (52.3%) outperforms Bullet (50.8%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 37.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 163 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 42.2%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 354 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 677 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 996 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.4%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 57.5% (90% CI: 54.8%-60.1%) win rate for white, based on 913 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 51.2%-60.1%) win rate for white, based on 330 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 60.4% (90% CI: 52.6%-68.0%) win rate for white, based on 107 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-53.1%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-54.0%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.0%-54.6%) win rate for white (874 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
The Ruy Lopez: Old Steinitz Defense, Semi-Duras Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.