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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap

25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score28.4%Range (90% confident): 27.9% – 28.9%Based on 25K games
0%28.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 27.9% – 28.9%
Outcome Distribution
25.9%5.0%69.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
10...c5
Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap
Analyzen=25K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 28.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 27.9% and 28.9%), based on 25K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 21%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.9% win rate (276 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.2% win rate (749 games)
  • 1200-1399: 37.3% win rate (1,893 games)
  • 1400-1599: 31.2% win rate (3,575 games)
  • 1600-1799: 24.9% win rate (6,096 games)
  • 1800-1999: 22.1% win rate (6,677 games)
  • 2000-2199: 19.9% win rate (3,951 games)
  • 2200-2499: 19.8% win rate (1,382 games)
  • 2500+: 21.2% win rate (161 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (30%), worst in Classical (22%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 29.7% win rate (3,778 games)
  • Blitz: 25.2% win rate (14,129 games)
  • Rapid: 25.3% win rate (6,480 games)
  • Classical: 22.0% win rate (373 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (86 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (130 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (59 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (256 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (370 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (123 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.6% expected score (393 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (1,135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (355 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 33.7% expected score (624 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.2% expected score (2,102 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (809 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 32.2% expected score (726 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 26.5% expected score (3,581 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 27.4% expected score (1,672 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 26.0% expected score (117 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 27.4% expected score (647 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 24.1% expected score (3,756 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 24.1% expected score (2,112 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 26.5% expected score (162 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 26.4% expected score (480 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 21.0% expected score (2,267 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 22.1% expected score (1,162 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (42 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 25.3% expected score (474 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 20.1% expected score (722 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 21.1% expected score (185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 30.2% expected score (92 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 19.7% expected score (66 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 25.9% (90% CI: 25.4%-26.3%) win rate for white, based on 25K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (276 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (29.7%) outperforms Classical (22.0%) by 7.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap?

The Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 53.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-58.8%) win rate for white, based on 276 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 749 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 37.3% (90% CI: 35.5%-39.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 31.2% (90% CI: 29.9%-32.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 24.9% (90% CI: 24.0%-25.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 22.1% (90% CI: 21.3%-22.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 19.9% (90% CI: 18.9%-21.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 19.8% (90% CI: 18.0%-21.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 21.2% (90% CI: 16.2%-26.7%) win rate for white, based on 161 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 29.7% (90% CI: 28.5%-30.9%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 25.2% (90% CI: 24.6%-25.8%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 25.3% (90% CI: 24.5%-26.2%) win rate for white (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap has a 22.0% (90% CI: 18.6%-25.6%) win rate for white (373 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Noah's Ark Trap is slightly favors black with a 25.9% (90% CI: 25.4%-26.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.