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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation

392K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 53.4%Based on 392K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 53.4%
Outcome Distribution
51.1%4.2%44.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nc3
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation
Analyzen=392K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.1% and 53.4%), based on 392K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.9% win rate (36,372 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.2% win rate (57,762 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.0% win rate (80,023 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.5% win rate (81,247 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.5% win rate (62,179 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (39,505 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.6% win rate (21,010 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.1% win rate (10,495 games)
  • 2500+: 52.2% win rate (3,245 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.0% win rate (11 games)
  • Bullet: 51.7% win rate (69,136 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (208,938 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (108,488 games)
  • Classical: 49.5% win rate (5,265 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,800 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (16,470 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (12,917 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (184 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (11,813 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (30,578 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (14,873 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (497 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (13,501 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (43,940 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (21,752 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (828 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (12,576 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (42,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (24,392 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (1,731 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (9,517 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (33,142 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (18,200 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (1,319 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (6,105 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (22,396 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (10,437 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (567 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (4,742 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (11,607 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (4,538 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (122 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,649 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (6,513 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (1,316 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (1,433 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (1,749 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.4% expected score (63 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 392K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (58K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Classical (49.5%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 58K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 81K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.0%) win rate for white (69K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.5%) win rate for white (209K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.6%) win rate for white (108K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.6%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.