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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred

170K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.2%Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.4%Based on 170K games
0%46.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 46.4%
Outcome Distribution
43.8%4.9%51.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Nxe4
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred
Analyzen=170K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 46.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 46.4%), based on 170K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.4% win rate (2,140 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.3% win rate (6,537 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.0% win rate (14,646 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.9% win rate (26,081 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.7% win rate (36,777 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.3% win rate (38,919 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.3% win rate (25,521 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.4% win rate (14,658 games)
  • 2500+: 41.4% win rate (4,402 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 45.4% win rate (31,721 games)
  • Blitz: 43.7% win rate (100,316 games)
  • Rapid: 42.6% win rate (35,832 games)
  • Classical: 41.6% win rate (1,809 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (864 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (877 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (394 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (2,363 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (3,261 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (894 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (3,924 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (8,296 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (2,355 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (5,719 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (15,192 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (4,923 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (245 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (5,691 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (22,460 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (8,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (4,908 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (22,878 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (10,466 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (667 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (3,711 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (15,139 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (6,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (264 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (3,111 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (9,451 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (2,061 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (2,762 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (203 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 14.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 170K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.6% win rate for white (26K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.6%) outperforms Classical (50.3%) by 1.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 11.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.0%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.5%) win rate for white (100K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.1%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.4%-52.3%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.