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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred

8.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.7%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 49.5%Based on 8.5K games
0%48.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 49.5%
Outcome Distribution
46.9%3.6%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.exf5
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred
Analyzen=8.5K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 48.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 49.5%), based on 8.5K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -3.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~47%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.5% win rate (148 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.0% win rate (286 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.2% win rate (577 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (1,002 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (1,746 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.1% win rate (2,333 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.0% win rate (1,573 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.5% win rate (682 games)
  • 2500+: 44.9% win rate (111 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (50%), worst in Bullet (46%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.6% win rate (1,603 games)
  • Blitz: 46.9% win rate (5,190 games)
  • Rapid: 47.8% win rate (1,611 games)
  • Classical: 49.5% win rate (54 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (41 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (85 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (72 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (154 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (60 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (305 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (118 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (216 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (537 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (245 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (312 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,073 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (431 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (1,448 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (198 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (1,054 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (314 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (136 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (469 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (77 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (46 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (65 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (286 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (46.9%) outperforms Classical (49.5%) by -2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 46.5% (90% CI: 39.8%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 148 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 52.0% (90% CI: 47.2%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 286 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 49.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 577 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.4%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 46.0% (90% CI: 43.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 46.5% (90% CI: 43.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 682 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 44.9% (90% CI: 37.3%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 111 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 45.6% (90% CI: 43.5%-47.6%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.0%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Schliemann Defense Deferred, Jaenisch Gambit Deferred is slightly favors black with a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.