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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit

8.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score57.3%Range (90% confident): 56.5% – 58.2%Based on 8.9K games
0%57.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 56.5% – 58.2%
Outcome Distribution
56.0%2.7%41.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bxf7+
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit
Analyzen=8.9K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 57.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.5% and 58.2%), based on 8.9K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +21.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.5% win rate (246 games)
  • 1000-1199: 58.1% win rate (531 games)
  • 1200-1399: 61.0% win rate (1,318 games)
  • 1400-1599: 61.8% win rate (1,785 games)
  • 1600-1799: 59.4% win rate (1,640 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.4% win rate (1,383 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (1,054 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.1% win rate (736 games)
  • 2500+: 46.1% win rate (184 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 55.0% win rate (1,250 games)
  • Blitz: 55.1% win rate (5,141 games)
  • Rapid: 58.2% win rate (2,379 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (106 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (103 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (110 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (316 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 69.5% expected score (83 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.3% expected score (216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (832 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (262 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (241 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 63.3% expected score (977 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 65.1% expected score (549 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (878 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (156 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (713 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (478 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (117 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (692 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (241 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (72 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (500 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (163 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.1%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 61.8% win rate for white (1.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (58.2%) outperforms Classical (60.0%) by -1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 246 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 58.1% (90% CI: 54.6%-61.6%) win rate for white, based on 531 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 61.0% (90% CI: 58.8%-63.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 61.8% (90% CI: 59.9%-63.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 59.4% (90% CI: 57.4%-61.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 54.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.4%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 41.1%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 736 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 46.1% (90% CI: 40.1%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 184 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-57.3%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.0%-56.2%) win rate for white (5.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 58.2% (90% CI: 56.6%-59.9%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit has a 60.0% (90% CI: 52.2%-67.6%) win rate for white (106 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.5%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Norwegian Variation, Nightingale Gambit is statistically favors white with a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.1%-56.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.