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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.7%Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 51.4%Based on 14K games
0%50.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 51.4%
Outcome Distribution
48.6%4.2%47.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...f5
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation
Analyzen=14K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 50.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.0% and 51.4%), based on 14K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.2% win rate (32 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (132 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.0% win rate (364 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.0% win rate (767 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.0% win rate (1,842 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.0% win rate (3,633 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.2% win rate (3,966 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.5% win rate (2,621 games)
  • 2500+: 48.2% win rate (483 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.9% win rate (2,024 games)
  • Blitz: 48.1% win rate (9,174 games)
  • Rapid: 49.6% win rate (2,488 games)
  • Classical: 47.9% win rate (154 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (46 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (67 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (101 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (211 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (162 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (492 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (250 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (1,223 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (339 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (374 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (2,389 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (808 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (62 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (460 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (2,631 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (837 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (465 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,833 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (306 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (151 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (316 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (767 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.5%) outperforms Classical (44.1%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 39.8%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 364 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 47.1%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 767 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.3%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 42.2%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 483 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.5%-49.2%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.4%) win rate for white (9.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.6%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 37.6%-50.6%) win rate for white (154 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Siesta Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.